Breeding Digest: Keep Small Books Out Of The Firing Line

An interval of 136 years between Apollo and Justify, followed by one of just five to Mage, tells us all we need to know about the way modern trainers can (and increasingly prefer to) prepare their Derby prospects. So these remain very early days for the freshmen sires, nowadays responsible for such a large portion of every juvenile crop.

In this era of monster books, especially, even the rookie with most action to date has barely scratched the surface. At the moment that's Vekoma, who lies second in the freshman prizemoney table with 11 winners from 28 starters. He will be able to call on no fewer than 130 named foals in his debut crop.

Nonetheless, anyone who enjoys a little Schadenfreude can imagine the anxiety with which every new starter is annually monitored when an expensive sire fails to land running. There are conspicuous cases every year, and of course many end up turning things round after the manner of Arrogate. So nobody should be panicking at this stage, even if they're charging multiples of the $12,500 fee via which Complexity has so far sired 12 winners (two stakes, one graded stakes) from just 18 starters.

What's really tough, however, is when stallions quickly suggest unexpected prowess from marginal opportunity, only to be swamped by rivals whose mediocre ratios can eventually be suppressed behind their sheer output. Adverts acclaiming “Yet another stakes winner for X” should very often translate as: “Gosh, can you believe that X, with all his opportunity, is still bumping along at three percent?”

Because horses that punch above weight from small, cheaply assembled books will almost invariably have seen their numbers meanwhile dwindle further yet, making it difficult to maintain momentum. Among last year's intake, for instance, will enough people remember, for long enough, the way a couple of Complexity's neighbors are performing at $5,000: Preservationist has had 26 winners (three in stakes) from 52 starters this year, a better strike-rate than any other second-crop sire; while Divisidero has two stakes winners from just 19 starters. They had to settle for 27 mares between them in 2023, so these horses (both carrying excellent bloodlines, incidentally) must depend on far-sighted breeders stepping up to give them the opportunity they have surely earned.

Casalu | Benoit

I mention this because no freshman has made a better start from a small base than Caracaro, with four winners from five starters to date from his 39 named foals conceived at $6,500. These include Kentucky Juvenile Stakes winner West Memorial and Del Mar debut romper Casalu, a $775,000 sensation at OBS April. Whether Caracaro can consolidate from here remains to be seen, but these straws in the wind deserve to be caught when so much hot air is guaranteed for rivals with huge cavalries to bring into play.

Instilled Regard has fielded three scorers from five, while his sales reception makes it absolutely no surprise that the very interesting Win Win Win has had four from eight. But for now I want to focus on Caracaro because we've just been reminded of the kind of odds his farm must overcome, in seeking such an imaginative niche in the midst of the Bluegrass superpowers.

Nakatomi, winner of the GI Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes last weekend, belongs to the second crop of Firing Line, who retired to Crestwood in 2017. Unfortunately he did so having long been out of the limelight, making no impact in a solitary 4-year-old start after derailing in the GI Preakness. But he had only been worn down late by American Pharoah in the Derby, and previously won the GIII Sunland Derby by 14 lengths, breaking the track record, and missed a juvenile Grade I by a nose.

There was one glaring problem: his sire Line of David. While Kantharos has meanwhile given Lion Heart credibility as a sire of sires, the fact is that Line of David produced nothing else remotely close to Firing Line (whose damsire Hold For Gold hardly improved matters). On the other hand, Firing Line is out of a Grade I-placed half-sister to the dams of Grade I milers Sharp Azteca (Freud) and Bowies Hero (Artie Schiller), from a line tracing to matriarchs Kamar and Square Angel.

Not many rolled the dice, even at $5,000, and then–the last straw–it turned out that Firing Line's fertility was ordinary. Yet there was some genetic functionality here. As a second crop sire, he mustered 23 winners from 37 starters including two placed at Grade II level.

Nakatomi | Sarah Andrew

One of those was Nakatomi himself, sharp enough to bookend his first campaign with Keeneland wins at the Spring Meet and in the Bowman Mill. But it has really been with maturity that he has thrived, making the podium at the Breeders' Cup last fall and now making his Grade I breakout. All too late, however, to rescue his sire from oblivion: last year Firing Line covered five mares and was sold to the Philippines.

Okay, fair enough: his road was already too steep for Firing Line to get away with patchy fertility as well. And, as we have discovered elsewhere, Nakatomi's dam must also take some credit. But let's hope that whatever ill luck he endured can be redressed by the horse now filling the breach on the same roster.

Caracaro is certainly a contrast to his magnificently robust neighbor Heart To Heart, who won graded stakes at three, four, five, six and seven, in that he managed no more than four starts. But in that brief window he split Country Grammer and Mystic Guide in the GIII Peter Pan Stakes, and also ran second in the GI Travers. His mother is by War Front out of GI Kentucky Oaks runner-up Santa Catarina (Unbridled), while the next dam was a Storm Cat half-sister to a Classic winner in Europe, a line tracing to Lady Be Good.

To the marketplace, however, first and foremost Caracaro is a son of Uncle Mo who created a buzz with his debut at the 2-year-old sales. For now he's keeping some much more expensive sires in the shade, and laying down a marker that should not be crushed when their tanks eventually come rolling through.

Record Shows Top Gun's Range

Sierra Leone couldn't quite find the extra reserves on Saturday, having once again consumed a ton of gas with one of his trademark moves from nowhere, but Gun Runner now appears to have another sophomore monster in World Record. His exhibition of speed in the GII Amsterdam could hardly be in greater contrast with late-running Sierra Leone. With Gun Pilot and Vahva slipstreaming Gunite, the last Amsterdam winner, with Grade I wins this year round a single turn, their sire is as remarkable for his range as his class.

World Record | Sarah Andrew

World Record actually has a ton of chlorophyll in his pedigree, his first three dams being by Exceed And Excel (Aus), Last Tycoon (Ire) and Grey Dawn (Fr). But his second dam certainly responded to dirt covers from Silver Charm and Cherokee Run respectively to produce Miss Isella, a triple Grade I scorer/GI Go For Wand runner-up, and GII Arkansas Derby winner Sir Cherokee, and it feels safe to assume that he won't be trying grass any time soon.

We must congratulate Joel Politi for picking out World Record's half-sister by Violence for $80,000 at Keeneland last September. She's just started breezing at Churchill, but is now a valuable commodity whatever she can do on the track. And, after last week's plaudits, we must again give a nod to the Runnymede team, who co-bred World Record and sold him to Maverick Racing for $410,000 as a weanling at the 2021 Keeneland November Sale.

Parenting All About Genes

Like Gun Runner, Justify has quickly positioned himself as eligible to fill an eventual void as the likes of Into Mischief (19) and Curlin (20) enter the evening of their careers. And it's been another auspicious week for the Triple Crown winner.

Parenting (inside) | Benoit

His pinhook sensation Ruling Court lived up to every cent of his record $2.3 million Arqana Breeze-Up tag with a brilliant debut at Sandown. Norman Williamson found this colt for $150,000 at Keeneland last September, and again we must reprise compliments offered last week, this time to co-breeder and consignor Nursery Place, where Williamson knew that the youngster would have received a peerless grounding.

Ruling Court heads the early betting on next year's Derby, though there's plainly a long way to go before he can give Justify a second consecutive Epsom champion from what remains a fairly small footprint in Europe. It only took a minor 11th hour hiccup, after all, to cause another son to miss the GI Haskell Stakes. Parenting instead surfaced in an allowance at Santa Anita last Sunday, holding off a far more seasoned rival after setting some pretty exacting fractions. That consolidated his 'TDN Rising Star' debut and stakes romp, and his ambitious new owners may yet see him enter the championship equation on one coast or other (GI Travers/GI Pacific Classic).

Bred by Jason Hall and BCS Thoroughbreds, Parenting did not enter a ring until OBS April last year, when prepared by Paul Sharp for a $750,000 sale. His breeze was backed up by a pedigree tracing to Sam-Son linchpin No Class as sixth dam, via a Seattle Slew half-sister to Smart Strike/Dance Smartly as fourth. Closer up, his mother is a half-sister to GI Woodbine Mile winner El Tormenta (Stormy Atlantic) by Lemon Drop Kid, whose dam was also by Seattle Slew. Fast as he is, with those genes behind him, Parenting is going to keep on running.